Transcript of Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan's Interview with Astro Awani's "Consider This", 16 January 2023

Melisa Idris (Astro Awani): Prolonged conflict, increasing protectionism and an emerging multipolar world. How will Singapore position itself amid a changing world order? Joining me on the show tonight to share more about Singapore's foreign policy priorities amid all of these multiple global anxieties, we have His Excellency, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs. Minister, thank you so much for joining me on the show today. I am hoping we could begin our conversation close to home, starting with the relationship of our two countries. This four-day trip marks your first trip to Malaysia since Anwar Ibrahim became the 10^th Prime Minister, November last year. How do you envision bilateral ties between our two countries strengthening under the Anwar Administration? I'm hoping you can give us some clear areas of focus for cooperation.

Minister: This year is the 60^th anniversary of (the formation of the Malaysian federation) and the 58^th year of independence for Singapore. The first point is, we are inseparable. Yes, there have been tumultuous political changes over the last 60 years. But the fact is, we are your permanent neighbour. First point.

The second point is because nearly six decades have passed, I think some of that emotional baggage has dissipated. You have got a new Prime Minister, Prime Minister Anwar, and Singapore is also going through a leadership transition. That is the second point.

The third point, and this really relates to COVID. I can tell you honestly, I can still remember the 18^th of March 2020 when the MCO was implemented and the Causeway was closed. This has never happened in our lifetime. If you go back in history, you probably have to go back to the Second World War when the British blew up the Causeway because they wanted to slow down the advance of the Japanese. What I can tell you from behind the scenes, is that the enormous amount of coordination, communication, mutual support between Singapore and Malaysia during these three years of COVID, making sure supply chains continue – flow of food, vegetables, eggs, industrial products, pharmaceuticals, vaccines – the two of us stood by each other. We did not drop the ball. We looked after each other. That built up an enormous reservoir of trust. So that is the other point: that in a crisis, we came through. We came through together (and) we have come through stronger. It is great to be back. I should also tell you in the last three years of COVID, I have been to Malaysia every single year.

Melisa: Okay, so you have not left those ties unchecked. When you talked about the free flow of the movements, the coordination needed to ensure that the ties remained, despite the lockdown, despite the pandemic, a large part of that was also the Malaysian workforce who live and work in Singapore, who then were not able to travel. That speaks very closely to Malaysians – the idea that many Malaysians are now living and working in Singapore, the Malaysian brain drain. Singapore's role in that, if I may ask you, is that role by design, or inadvertent?

Minister: We are kindred souls, we are related. Blood, society, marriage. Again, the example of COVID. I think if you ask the Malaysians, some of whom decided to stay with us or were kind of stuck with us, they will know that Singaporeans were hospitable. As I said, we looked out and we looked after each other, and this applies both ways.

I will tell you another thing. Many of the appeals that the Foreign Minister in Malaysia and the Foreign Minister in Singapore received in those times, were heart-breaking appeals. “My grandmother is dying, my father is in ICU, I need to see them one last time.” It again illustrated that very close heart-to-heart ties between us. And that is why when I said we are inseparable, this is not about politics, it is people-to-people. That was really what was emphasised. And COVID was a stark reminder of that.

Melisa: If I may shift the conversation to the region. So, we are talking about our bilateral ties. But we also have other ties with our neighbours, with ASEAN and specifically with Myanmar. Almost exactly two years, to the day of the Myanmar military toppling over a democratically elected government. How are you seeing the role of Singapore in relation to the crisis in Myanmar, not just through ASEAN, but with the people of Myanmar who have fled the country since the coup?

Minister: The coup was a grave disappointment, an enormous setback. I think many of us have friends from Myanmar. What an enormous, deep sense of regret that has resulted from that. Our efforts are really working through ASEAN and the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, which our leaders agreed on and which Myanmar too agreed to. Unfortunately, there has not been any significant progress. Violence continues. Real political dialogue between the key stakeholders is not happening. Without that national reconciliation, you are not going to get peace, you are not going to be able to reconstruct and put Myanmar and its people back on the trajectory that they so richly deserve. So, it is sad. Two years later, we are still in this situation.

Melisa: How do we achieve that political dialogue? Again, with the Five-Points Consensus? Is that the only democratic process, the only diplomatic process at play at the moment? Is there any other way to encourage political dialogue, given that the Five-Point Consensus has failed?

Minister: I haveto say there is no other alternative. And we do need to be patient. The military in Myanmar has very high tolerance for pain, especially when the pain is felt by their people, but not in their (military’s) immediate families. If you look at the tortured history of Myanmar over the past six, seven decades, it has been a very difficult history. The first point I want to emphasise is the need for patience.

Second, it does not mean giving up hope, or abandoning all action, but to keep cajoling, persuading, encouraging, facilitating this dialogue. The other point worth emphasising is national reconciliation can only occur domestically, internally. It is not something which can be imposed from outside. And this is another key principle of ASEAN, that we will not interfere in the domestic political arrangements of each country. Now you have to hope that the leaders across the spectrum in Myanmar come to that realisation that they do need to have honest to goodness conversations, they do need to reconcile and they need to do so for the sake of their own people.

Melisa: But as we are waiting patiently, the people of Myanmar are suffering atrocities. How long are we going to wait patiently? It is not enough to just sit by and wait.  Is it not time that, we stop waiting for the junta to change its conduct, that stronger actions are needed which would you say that Singapore would agree with that?

Minister: I would say, again, lets fully subscribe to the principles of ASEAN’s  non-interference (in the domestic affairs of ASEAN Member States).  There is good reason for that. Having said that, it does not mean we are just going to close our eyes pretend that everything is back to normal, recognise the junta and say life goes on. We are not. And if you look at the most recent ASEAN Summit, our leaders reaffirmed that the military leaders of Myanmar will not be represented at our summits and meetings of the foreign ministers. Myanmar remains a member of ASEAN, has access to all the information and all the arrangements that are going on but that sense of disapproval is still there.

Melisa: This is a tricky one for diplomacy, because how would you encourage political dialogue without legitimising (the military)? Is there a tricky balance?

Minister: No, I do not see that as a balance. They are two separate things. We are not legitimising the coup, or the junta. But we are saying that real dialogue needs to occur across the political spectrum in Myanmar. They need to release the political detainees, President Win Myint, State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi need to be released. They need people to sit down face-to-face and have honest to goodness conversations with their political rivals or whatever you are going to use to describe these stakeholders in Myanmar's body politic. But that is the only way. Otherwise, you are just going continue this path of poverty, of violence, and it is a dead end. There is no future on this path.

Melisa: The UN – do you see the international community helping deescalate some of the tensions there? I know there was a resolution by the UN Security Council, the first in 74 years. That was a long time. But beyond just official condemnation, what can the international community do? What can multilateral bodies like the United Nations do?

Minister: That same resolution you mentioned, did also have a reference to arms. I can certainly speak from the perspective of Singapore that we make sure no military equipment or dual use equipment which can be used to harm the citizens of Myanmar, pass through our ports to Myanmar, and I hope the other countries do so. But you know as well as I do that there is at least one major power that is supplying military equipment to the military.

Melisa: Let us talk about the other prolonged crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Also, I think, close to 11 months now, since the full-scale invasion, the war is geographically very far from us, but the impact on food prices and energy prices, the proxy US-China tussle, all of that affects our region nevertheless. You have said before that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is quote, “an existential issue for Singapore”. Was wondering whether you could elaborate on that?

Minister: We are a tiny city state, just 58 years old.

Melisa: Much smaller than Ukraine.

Minister: Much, much smaller. When a big, powerful neighbour cites historical errors and crazy decisions to launch an invasion, redraw boundaries, change governments, all alarm bells go. For us, this is first and foremost a matter of principle. It is a flagrant affront to the UN charter, to the principles of independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. We objected to this on principle. In fact, this was the same position we took when Russia went after Crimea in 2014. In a sense, Singapore's position was not something new. Singapore’s foreign policy is consistent, it is almost predictable, because we operate on these principles.

Having said that, clearly, it is a conflict with global ramifications. It has not helped the relations between the superpowers, it has certainly caused significant escalation in terms of inflation for food, energy, and it just raises the risks for all of us. It is not just something that is happening in Ukraine.

The other dimension to it, is how we in Asia, what lessons should we learn from this. The problem in Europe has been that since the Second World War, the question always has been, where is the line? The Iron Curtain. And then when the Berlin Wall came down, was that line moving eastwards progressively. In Southeast Asia, we do not want a line. Our concept is Southeast Asia should be overlapping circles of friends. The better we can execute this, the better we can engage with all the superpowers and stakeholders in our region, the better. Because we want to make sure that this kind of conflict does not emerge in our part of the world.

Melisa: That is quite interesting. I do want to come to that shortly. But I am curious to hear your views on how you think the crisis in Ukraine might be resolved. I mean, one year on, nobody thought it would last this long. Is there still a lack of clarity as to Russia's endgame, Russia’s objectives in Ukraine and what they are willing to do to meet those objectives?

Minister: Well, the war is ongoing. I have been speaking to the foreign ministers of both Ukraine and Russia. Unfortunately, I do not see any sign of a real commitment to negotiations in good faith at this point in time. The tragedy of wars is that even when it is obvious that negotiations are needed, because all battles ultimately end with negotiations on the table, is that both sides have sustained losses to the point which they cannot muster the political capital and the leadership and the wisdom to sit down.

Melisa: Too much into it, because?

Minister: They have lost too much. Unfortunately, both sides are now trapped in that spiral. I think it will take some time off before cooler heads, and a more long-term strategic outlook prevails, and then negotiations occur. It is very complicated. We are not party to those, so it is easy for us to sit here and analyse. But if you are a leader of Ukraine, you are the leader of Russia, you are accountable to your people for the decisions you make, for the compromises which may be necessary. And for the long-term solutions, which you have to make stick. Do not underestimate the difficulty. My own sense is that this will get worse before it gets better.

Melisa: For the rest of the people who are watching, particularly those in foreign policy. What does the re-emergence of war in Europe signal to you about the current world order?

Minister: A couple of things. First, never believe that war is over. For the last 70-80 years, we have had a peace dividend. In Europe, they reached the point where they believed that war was not going to occur, at least in Western Europe,

Melisa: That was a past that they had overcome.

Minister: Then there was this concept that if we are interdependent, for energy, for food, for fertilizer, war does not make sense and therefore will not occur. Well, that myth got blown up.

The point is, never, never take what we have for granted. That is the first point.

Second point is, and I reflected on it, from an Asian perspective. We do not want to be an arena for proxy wars, or for neo-colonialism. For that, it also behoves all of us in Southeast Asia, to band together, or we will hang individually. So that is why ASEAN is so important. That is why ASEAN, for all the criticisms about: “you take so long to make decisions, you insist on consensus”. Well, no other part of the world has the diversity that Southeast Asia has in terms of economic systems, society, culture, forms of government. To me, this confirms why we need ASEAN and why we need to work together, support each other, build up those habits, avoid the temptations for quick fixes, for interference in domestic affairs of other countries, avoid making appeals to external powers to solve our own regional problems. And, we are actually moving into a multipolar world. The unipolar moment where America was the only superpower with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, has come to an end.

It is equally wrong to assume we are now just simply transiting into a bipolar world where it is just the US and China. In fact, what we are witnessing now: there is the US, there is China, there is Europe, there is India; later, Africa, and South America. But the real sleeper hit: Southeast Asia.

Let me let me give you some statistics for that. We have got 660 million people in Southeast Asia. That is a European size population. Our combined GDP is about USD3.2 trillion. That is actually still small for our population.But 60% of our population is below the age of 35. We have got a demographic dividend to harvest in the next two decades. ASEAN can be the fifth largest economy globally, within the next two decades. If you ask China who its largest trading partner is? Is it America or the EU? The Chinese will tell you it is Southeast Asia. If I check with the Americans - where has America invested more than it has invested in India, China and Japan combined? You know what the answer is? Southeast Asia.So, we count. So do not discount Southeast Asia, we are a pole and a growing pole in a multipolar world. And look at Southeast Asia, deal with us on our own merits, and not just through the prism of US, China, British.

Melisa: We tend to do that, we tend to do that.

Minister: Too many people do that. That is actually simply wrong.

Melisa: In this transition to a multipolar world with all the different poles, as you mentioned, how is Singapore looking at other poles? How is Singapore going to relate to these big powers?

Minister: Again, I can only share with you the perspective of Singapore. As I said, a tiny city state, multiracial, multi-religious cosmopolitan society in the heart of Southeast Asia. Our trade is about three times our GDP. So, when Singapore says we believe in economic integration, we believe in free trade, we believe in multilateral free trade agreements, we believe in the rule of law, we believe in peaceful resolution of these disputes, these are not debating points for us. It is life blood. Because a world which is fractured, fractious, divided, polarised, and at war, is a very dangerous world for a tiny city state like Singapore.

So that is why, we will do our best to stand with our neighbours. Number one neighbour, obviously is Malaysia, and with ASEAN. We will continue to integrate our economies. We will continue to facilitate the transformation towards the green and digital revolution, which is occurring in all our societies. We will make sure our digital systems interoperate. For instance, in Singapore, we can send money to each other, I do not need your bank account, I only need your phone number. We are now linking that with Thailand. We are linking that with India. But I would hope that we should shortly see such a system across Southeast Asia. Now, not just technology for its sake, but every small shopkeeper, every small farmer, every hawker, every artist and artisan can sell, can trade, can settle. Low barriers to entry. We do this in the digital space. Even as we transit into the green economy, renewable energy, solar energy, the hydrogen economy, think of how much can be achieved if Southeast Asia is on the forefront of that. And yet, if you look at the map of Southeast Asia and the natural resources which Southeast Asia has, both in terms of energy, renewable energy, and the minerals needed for the digital economy, we are in the game.

Melisa: You know, it is funny because all of these things, often we tend to look from a very domestic point of view – how do we implement these types of strategies within national borders. It is a foreign policy issue. It is really to do with how you connect to other countries, interconnectedness.

Minister: Foreign policy begins at home. You have got to first make the pitch to your own people. Why it makes sense, to lower barriers, inter-operate, integrate, and to stick by the rule of law, and international agreements mean so much. I will just come back to Malaysia and Singapore. I mentioned we got divorced 58 years ago. But we are still always going to be living in the same house. When there was a fire, or a threat to the house, we looked after each other. That builds confidence.

For the future, there will always be issues where we will have divergence or even disagreements on. But here I can tell you categorically, at least as far as Singapore and Malaysia are concerned, we have always stuck to the rule of law. We have always had peaceful dispute resolution. Sometimes we win, sometimes Malaysia wins. It does not matter. The fact is, we play by the rules. And that is wonderful. And that is why I am confident that, we will not agree on everything, but we will continue methodically, deliberately, progressively solve problems, and we will do a lot more together.

Melisa: Can I very quickly ask you in the minute or so that we have left, the priorities for this year? You listed a very fractious world and multiple crises happening. What would be your foreign policy priority?

Minister: In the immediate term, we are at the end of round one of COVID-19. We are all reopening our economies and are doing that safely. At the same time, bear in mind that we are now into a world where it is no longer just about just-in-time inventories, but just-in-case. Which means all of us are now prepared to pay a premium for reliability, trustworthiness, resilience. Again, to countries like Malaysia and Singapore, which have proven that through the crisis, I think we are well on that road. Beyond that, with Malaysia, we are also exploring opportunities in the digital and in the green space. That is going to be a very rich harvest in the next five to ten years, the decades to come. We have got a full plate for our agendas.

Melisa: Thank you so much for being on the show today. It has been a pleasure talking to you.

Minister: You are most welcome. I enjoyed my time here.

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