Press Statements
MFA Press Statement: Visit by Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong to Tokyo, Japan, 5-6 June 2017
Country
Japan
5 June 2017
Emeritus Senior Minister (ESM) Goh Chok Tong’s meeting with Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Taro Aso. Also in the picture is Singapore’s Ambassador to Japan Chin...
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Emeritus Senior Minister (ESM) Goh Chok Tong’s meeting with Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Taro Aso. Also in the picture is Singapore’s Ambassador to Japan Chin Siat Yoon (right). [Photo credit: MFA]
Emeritus Senior Minister (ESM) Goh Chok Tong’s Keynote Dialogue at the 23rd International Conference on The Future of Asia, with moderator Sonoko Watanabe, Nikkei Asian Review Editor-in-Chief. [Photo credit: MFA]
Emeritus Senior Minister (ESM) Goh Chok Tong spoke at the Keynote Dialogue at the 23rd International Conference on The Future of Asia, “Globalism at a Crossroads – Asia’s Next Move” on 5 June. The full text of ESM’s speech as well as edited excerpts from the Dialogue are appended.
ESM also had separate meetings with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Taro Aso, as well as members of the Japan-Singapore Parliamentary Friendship League. They reaffirmed the close bilateral cooperation between Singapore and Japan, discussed domestic developments in Japan, and exchanged views on regional and international developments.
On 6 June, ESM will meet Keidanren Chairman Sadayuki Sakakibara and other senior business leaders, as well as a group of young Japanese politicians. ESM will also officiate the grand opening of Ascott Marunouchi Tokyo, a luxury serviced residence by The Ascott Limited.
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MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
SINGAPORE
5 JUNE 2017
SPEECH BY EMERITUS SENIOR MINISTER GOH CHOK TONG AT THE 23RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE OF ASIA: “GLOBALISM AT A CROSSROADS – ASIA’S NEXT MOVE”
5 JUNE 2017
“SHAPING ASIA’S FUTURE – WHO WILL TAKE THE LEAD?”
Mr Naotoshi Okada
President and CEO, Nikkei
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen
1 Globalism, loosely defined as taking into account the interests of the world and not just a nation’s own, is at a crossroads. There are strong forces pushing back globalism and free trade in the US, the UK and other parts of Europe. Deep-seated anger over growing income inequality, unemployment, and the influx of immigrants – both legal and illegal – have come to a boil. America’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord on Climate Change aggravates the divide over the status quo. This shift away from globalism is not in Asia’s interest. So I ask two questions: what can Asia do and who will take the lead in shaping Asia’s future?
Global Context – Setting the Scene
2 The benefits of free trade are widely seen and felt. However, insufficient attention was paid to the tail risks of globalisation. These risks include the loss of jobs and wage stagnation for large segments of the population, and widening income inequality. These pains have been exacerbated in recent years by financial crises, sluggish and uneven growth in developed economies, and disruptive technologies.
3 US President Donald Trump’s campaign slogan of putting “America First” resonated with many in the context of this social and economic fallout. Many voters firmly believed that globalisation was working only for the established and not for them. They bought the populist rhetoric that competition from lower-cost emerging economies stole their jobs and depressed their incomes.
4 The “Me First” phenomenon is not necessarily inward-looking, protectionist or anti-free trade. But it is a fundamental shift away from multilateralism towards bilateral engagement. At its heart, is a hub-and-spokes strategy which enables a big economy to bilaterally exercise its bargaining power over smaller economies. It is like a yokozuna, a grand champion sumo wrestler, taking on smaller-sized wrestlers one at a time.
5 When global leadership goes missing, the “Me First” attitude in international relations may mutate into a “Me Only”. If that happens, it unravels international cooperation needed to address transboundary challenges such as financial crises, money laundering, climate change, public health epidemics and terrorism. The outcome is anarchy and failure of the international system as we know it. The last time this happened, we had two world wars.
6 This brings me to my next point – what can and will Asia do? Will Asia stay the course and fly the banner of globalisation, free trade and economic integration? Can Asia spin a multilateral web of free trade agreements and achieve better outcomes than a bilateral hub-and-spokes approach in growing economies and building a better world?
Asia’s Next Move
7 Asia has benefited immensely from an open and inclusive international economic order. Trade has benefited our people. Reduced barriers to trade opened up foreign markets, leading to rapid economic growth. Foreign investments provided much-needed jobs.
8 Greater interdependence amongst countries produce peace and balanced benefits through mutual cooperation. In a hub-and-spokes relationship however, the benefits are likely to be asymmetrical. For Asia, whose tumultuous history and consequent trust deficit sometimes impede bilateral working relationship, multilateralism fosters peace and a shared prosperous future. An interdependent, multilateral web of countries will require respect for one another, the rule of law and give-and-take cooperation, as opposed to a hub-and-spokes arrangement where might, i.e. the hub, calls the shots.
9 In my opinion, Asia is well placed to champion free trade and further integration.
Free Trade Agreements
10 A number of high-profile free trade agreements are on the table. The most ambitious is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). It is a high-quality agreement that would raise the standards for trade and investment, strengthen trade linkages, promote growth and create jobs in all TPP countries. However, the US has withdrawn from it. While the remaining TPP-11 Parties are naturally disappointed, given that the agreement had represented a carefully negotiated balance of benefits, we hope to welcome the US back when it is ready. Meanwhile, Japan, as the largest remaining economy in the TPP, has stepped forward to work with other like-minded TPP members to explore ways to carry the initiative forward.
11 There is also the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Broadly, the RCEP differs from the TPP in two dimensions –membership and aspiration. The RCEP will bring together ASEAN and its six FTA partners, namely Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea. Together, these 16 countries encompass 45% of the world’s population and a third of the global GDP. Compared to the TPP, the scope of the RCEP is narrower. But the agreement is nevertheless ambitious.
Asian Leadership
12 Now comes the crucial question. Who in Asia will champion free trade and economic integration? As two of the world’s largest economies, the responsibility naturally falls on Japan and China. But they must lead in tandem and not as rivals.
Japan
13 Historically, opening up has not been an easy process for Japan. It started only in 1853, with the arrival of US Commodore Matthew Perry’s “Black Ships” in Tokyo Bay seeking trade between the US and Japan. Fleets from other Western countries followed suit. Although Japan was reluctant at the time, it proved to be a master at reinventing itself and turning a seemingly adverse situation to its advantage. The Meiji Restoration girded Japan’s industrialisation. Foreign trade took off in full force. This same openness and resilience enabled the Japanese people to rebuild their country from the ashes of the Second World War. Japan’s rapid development spurred growth in the broader Asia-Pacific region, providing not only foreign direct investment but ideas and inspiration on how Asian countries could achieve industrialisation and economic development.
14 Today, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is leading Japan to assume an increasingly proactive role on the global stage. In what will prove to be another historic milestone for Japan, PM Abe overcame domestic reluctance to make the bold and visionary decision to join the TPP. He wants Japan to maintain an outward orientation, and will play a crucial leadership role in pushing forward the TPP. Besides this, Japan has prioritised efforts aimed at boosting physical and economic connectivity in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, for example with its Partnership for Quality Infrastructure initiatives and Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.
China
15 For some parts of its history, China too was reluctant to open up. China then considered itself the centre of the world, self-sufficient and not needing much investment from others. During the Qing Dynasty, Emperor Qianlong rebuffed England’s attempts to engage China in trade. He rejected the bountiful gifts of English products and labelled them as “tribute” instead. It took several centuries, and a far-sighted and courageous leader like Deng Xiaoping, to open China to the outside world in 1978. That decision changed the course of China and Asia.
16 Now, China has become a vocal proponent of free trade. President Xi Jinping gave an impassioned defence of the liberal international economic order in his keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year. Through initiatives such as the “Belt and Road” and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China has expressed willingness to lead global economic integration.
17 Is the Belt and Road another hub-and-spokes strategy? Is it a “China First” strategy? Chinese leaders have made it clear that it is not their intention.
18 At the Belt and Road Forum last month, President Xi summed up very aptly the call for Asia’s future. He said, “We should embrace the outside world with an open mind, uphold the multilateral trading regime, and advance the building of free trade areas.” To this end, the Belt and Road Initiative provides the physical connectivity that will support the overarching free trade agreements in the region and beyond. Put simply, the Belt and Road together with free trade agreements can potentially advance multilateral trade and globalisation. It integrates the region, as opposed to dividing it.
Important Relationships
19 The most important relationships in Asia are between China and the US and Japan and the US. But I think a third relationship, namely Japan-China, is just as important. If Japan-China relations can move towards greater trust and cooperation, there will be a mutually-reinforcing effect on the other key bilateral relationships in the region. It will pave the way for the Japan-China-US trilateral relationship to become one of the world’s most important. A strong trilateral relationship would be an important force for stability and a driver of continued economic growth and prosperity for both the region and the world.
20 It is hence important that Japan and China lead Asia in tandem towards greater integration. It will not work as well if only one country leads the charge. If both countries provide competitive but divergent leadership, it will be destabilising. It is far better to spin an interdependent multilateral network, a web, with many paths connecting different points.
21 Of course, the US’ continued engagement of Asia is integral to the region’s prosperity. It has been in the region for over 70 years as an Asia-Pacific power. I am heartened that the Trump Administration has signalled its continued strong commitment to the region – not just Northeast Asia, but Southeast Asia and ASEAN as well. President Trump’s attendance at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Summit, East Asia Summit and ASEAN-US Summit later this year, will build on the region’s ties with the US.
22 There is also India, soon to have the world’s largest population. It has a young population. It has opened its economy since the early 1990s. It is reforming its economy and has been growing by more than 7 percent per year in recent years. If it continues with its reforms, it has the potential to be another mega economy. India is a member of RCEP. It can contribute to the integration of Asia by actively supporting an early conclusion of RCEP.
Negative Consequences of Globalisation
23 However, even as we push for economic integration, Asia must learn from the populist and nationalistic sentiments that we are witnessing today in the West. Such sentiments arising from the negative consequences of globalisation may one day reach Asia.
24 For now, Japan’s low income inequality, and its society’s relative homogeneity and strong national and cultural identity, serve as buffers. As for China, although inequality is relatively high, the risk is offset by good growth prospects and the emergence of a new middle class. National governments will have to ensure that benefits from globalisation are distributed equitably and inclusively.
ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific
25 Small countries too can play an important catalytic role in advancing globalisation and free trade. They are non-threatening. They are outward-looking in order to remain relevant to the world. They can propose creative ideas without raising suspicions of an ulterior motive. But they need to advance their interests based on principles and not take sides based on a patron-client relationship.
26 Back in 2002 at the APEC Summit in Mexico, three small countries, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore agreed to launch the Pacific-3. Three years later, Brunei joined to form the P4. P4 provided the foundation for the TPP.
27 As an aside, I claim credit for having persuaded then-Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa on the value of free trade agreements for Japan, and to negotiate the Japan-Singapore Economic Partnership Agreement with us. This Agreement, signed in 2002, was Japan’s first free trade agreement. It is time to upgrade the Partnership Agreement to ensure that it remains relevant to businesses from both sides.
28 ASEAN, of course, will play its part to further economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN celebrates its 50th anniversary this year. It is intensifying efforts to achieve deeper economic integration through the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). This has reduced barriers to trade and promoted economic growth for the member countries. ASEAN is also committed to achieving a high-quality RCEP agreement that will bring substantive economic benefits for the region. ASEAN is not stopping here – it is looking to deepen integration even further, looking at cross-border and emerging issues ahead of the AEC blueprint in 2025.
Conclusion
29 Ladies and Gentlemen, globalism is at a crossroads. It is time for Asia to stand up for free and fair trade, reap the full benefits of globalisation, and shape the new global agenda.
30 Asia needs to do its utmost to take our prosperity to the next level. With strong leaders working together, we can achieve this.
Thank you.
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EDITED EXCERPTS FROM THE DIALOGUE SESSION FOLLOWING
EMERITUS SENIOR MINISTER GOH CHOK TONG’S SPEECH
AT THE 23RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON
THE FUTURE OF ASIA
5 JUNE 2017
On how to build a positive relationship between China and Japan – what should Japan or China do? From your point of view, what is the key now?
ESM: The history is there, memories are there, those things you cannot erase. But in politics, looking forward is important, looking towards the future. You have two strong leaders now – Prime Minister Abe and President Xi – who on their own, and for the sake of Asia, will have to look forward. Then the question will be how to look forward.
Well, there are the free trade agreements. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), they are not rival agreements. They are actually complementary agreements at two different stages of the economic development. China is not ready to join the TPP, but the TPP is not meant to cut out China. China is a member of the RCEP, but some people think RCEP is China’s way of countering American-Japanese influence in the TPP. That is wrong, because RCEP is actually initiated by ASEAN, not by China. So now, minus the US, Japan should take the lead in TPP. And of course if you get it signed and ratified by eleven members, it is open to China to join. And if Japan signals to China that anytime you are ready, we can negotiate the membership, that’s one gesture to China – the TPP under Japanese leadership is not meant to keep out China. Our hope must be to bring in China. So that’s one example.
The next example is physical infrastructure. China has its Belt and Road, maritime silk road. And Japan will play a very important part in building infrastructure, in financing infrastructure. Japan has come out with pledges to spend several billion dollars to finance infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. At the moment it will come across as “my own Belt and Road”, you have yours, I have mine. That may be so, but my key point is working in tandem. They are all part of this physical connectivity.
Well, what is missing? The word is trust. China and Japan have been neighbours since time immemorial. And lack of trust is a result of history. But if you keep on looking back into history, you’ll never move forward. History becomes an anchor dragging you. So can both sides cut the shackles off the anchor? Well, I am a little idealistic, because small countries must think in idealistic ways. We cannot allow history to bog us down, so small countries are much more future-oriented, much more confident about looking into the future, and not being tied down by history.
Can this be overcome? The answer is yes because if the US withdraws, what will happen? The US is now the power that holds the peace in Asia. If the US is not here, are we going back to war between Japan and China? Maybe that horrible thought will force all of us in Asia to tell Japan and China, let’s build a new order for Asia. So, coming from a small country, I have to be optimistic. If I’m not optimistic, there will be no place for Singapore in the world.
On erasing concerns among some neighbours, including India, that China has now become the guardian of free trade, including the Paris Accord.
ESM: If Japan and China work together, India will come in. Because India will want to be a part of this prospering, growing Asia.
On the risk of more terrorism in Asia, including the Mindanao situation.
ESM: Well that’s another very challenging area for us. But in case we’ve forgotten, there was already a terrorist network in Southeast Asia that tried to form an Islamic caliphate. It goes by the name of Jemaah Islamiyah. So the dream of a caliphate was and is still there.
Then along came ISIS. What’s more worrying for us is ISIS now is trying to create a foothold in Philippines. And it’s not just Filipinos fighting, but Malaysians, Indonesians, other fighters from the Middle East, and it was reported that Singaporeans were there too. They knew they would not be able to win this battle in Marawi, against the Filipino army. But they were prepared to sacrifice themselves to show we are here, we can establish physical presence. And a big worry for us will be ISIS may declare a virtual caliphate in Southeast Asia to attract radicalised Muslims. In Singapore, we are all mentally prepared that some terror act will happen sooner or later.
So what can we do? We must have very good cooperation and intelligence. Next, we are in this part of the world, and we have to understand our Muslims. We cannot with a broad brush, through our speeches and rhetoric, inadvertently tar all Muslims as radicals, as extremists, or as prone to extremism. If you do that, right away you will alienate all Muslims. If they can’t integrate with the society, then more will turn to radical Islam for their own identity, for their own place.
So next they must feel that they are progressing along with other members of society. If they are not progressing, no matter how understanding you are, they will feel that they are marginalised. They are not part of society. Then again there will be more elements which are more susceptible to radical thinking.
This is a total approach making them feel that they are part of (us). And if you succeed in that, it is our own Muslim members who give us information on a few people who are being radicalised. So when they are on your side, it’s easier to fight the radicals. If they are not on your side, you will not know who is who. So it’s a total approach, not just within the country but amongst all the members in ASEAN.
On whether there is anything that Japan or China can do.
ESM: If China, Japan help Southeast Asian countries to grow, then the Southeast Asian countries, which have millions of Muslims, feel that we are part of Asia. So this sense of community in Southeast Asia, this sense of togetherness that we are Asians, will ensure that the Muslims here and the Islamic countries also enjoy prosperity in Asia. This is important, because if there’s income inequality between the Northeast Asian countries, Japan, Korea, China, and in Southeast Asia between the non-Muslim and the Muslim countries lagging behind, then I think that we are in big trouble. So again, these free trade arrangements and infrastructure to link all countries together, are very important to make sure that Asia will grow together and all of us will benefit regardless of religion and race.
On whether ASEAN or Singapore can play a catalytic role in the issue of the DPRK or if they are already playing a role in other regional fora.
ESM: If we do meet them, then we give ideas, and so on, and you know we don’t threaten them. I think that is one way we can play a role in North Korea. If there were economic opportunities, I suppose we could have gone there. That’s another way of a small country playing a catalytic role to get North Korea to understand the benefits of economic development. But we could not because the market was too small in North Korea, and for them to export to other countries with sanctions, with all the problems that they have, was impossible. I received several invitations to go. (But) their efforts, their intent, to develop missiles and nuclear weapons, well, we decided better that I did not give the wrong signal by visiting them.
On the difference between free and fair trade in ESM’s speech, and how Asia can cooperate given US President Donald Trump’s emphasis on reciprocal trade.
ESM: Well, we subsume fair under free trade. Because if it’s not fair trade, then people will not support free trade. I put the term “fair” in on purpose, with a view of the US President’s reaction. So I said free and fair. Actually it’s repetitive. It must be free and fair, otherwise there will be no trade.
The danger of the thinking in the US Administration now is, with every person you deal with, you must win. That’s not possible. In a one-to-one negotiation, the big worry is, smaller countries would have no chance. And the big regret at the present which I have personally at the US’ attitude is that they are losing moral leadership in the world. It is a very important leader but at the moment I think most countries wonder whether the US has got this moral authority to lead with the “America First” attitude. A zero-sum game is not good for the world.
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