Remarks by Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong at the Opening Ceremony of the Understanding China-Greater Bay Area Dialogue, 19 April 2023

Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong delivered pre-recorded remarks at the opening ceremony of the Understanding China-Greater Bay Area Dialogue organised by the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy in Guangzhou on 19 April 2023. The theme of the Dialogue is “Chinese Modernisation and New Opportunities for the World”.

The full text is appended.

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MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

SINGAPORE

19 APRIL 2023

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Mr Chairman

Ladies and Gentlemen

1. Thank you for inviting me to speak at your distinguished Dialogue.

2. China’s development has been phenomenal since it opened to the outside world more than four decades ago.  I have seen it with my own eyes.  I first visited Beijing in 1971 and have been to many parts of China since.  China is now the world’s second largest economy, with a share of global GDP at over 18%.  As China exits from the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect its economy to grow stronger and lead global growth for the next few years.

Singapore’s participation in China’s development

3. China’s development has benefitted the world, in particular, countries in the region.

4. Singapore has been an early and steadfast partner of China in its modernisation journey.

a. Mr Lee Kuan Yew initiated our first Government-to-Government project, the Suzhou Industrial Park, in 1994.  This proved hugely successful, having been ranked the best economic development zone in China for seven years running.

b. I proposed the second Government-to-Government project, the Tianjin Eco-City, to Premier Wen Jiabao in 2007.  The project focuses on ecological protection and sustainability, in line with China’s priority on sustainable development.

c. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong accepted China’s proposal for our third Government-to-Government project, the Chongqing Connectivity Initiative (CCI) in 2015.  This project ties in nicely with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.  The New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor under the CCI established a new trade route between China’s inland Western provinces and Southeast Asia.

d. There is also another large-scale project, the Guangzhou Knowledge City.  This is a private sector-led and government-supported project to help transform Guangdong’s economy.

5. My point is this.  At different stages of China’s development, Singapore, under different Prime Ministers, has sought to identify China’s prevailing priorities and map out the areas where our interests converge.  This has allowed both countries to achieve “win-win” outcomes.

Opportunities for ASEAN

6. Likewise, ASEAN countries are well-positioned to seize the opportunities from China’s continued growth for “win-win” outcomes.

a.      ASEAN is home to 680 million people, with a growing middle class and vast consumer market.

b.      Collectively, ASEAN is the 5^th largest economy in the world.

c.      ASEAN and China are now each other’s biggest trading partners.

d.      Two-way investment flow exceeds US$340 billion.

7. There is still potential for ASEAN and China to deepen our ties.

a. China was ASEAN’s first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) partner in 2002.  The ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) became a pathfinder for ASEAN’s subsequent FTAs with other dialogue partners, as well as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), currently the largest FTA in the world.

b. ASEAN and China are now negotiating an upgrade of the ACFTA.  I urge both sides to secure a substantive upgrade.  This will pave the way for deeper regional economic integration and a stronger rules-based multilateral trading system.

8. ASEAN and China can also expand their cooperation to emerging sectors, such as in the digital economy.

a. The size of China’s digital economy more than doubled in the last six years.  It now makes up about 40% of its GDP.

b. Similarly, ASEAN is the fastest growing internet market in the world.

c. There is scope for both sides to cooperate in this area, including through inter-operability of e-commerce platforms and further facilitation of cross-border trade, among others.

Key challenges to China’s development

9. However, the positive relations between ASEAN and China are overcast by the looming strategic tensions between the US and China.  The US-China relationship is critically important to peace and stability in Southeast Asia, and the rest of the world.

a. Regrettably, the US and China now regard one another as strategic rivals.  They have differing positions over a wide range of issues – trade, investments, supply chains, cyber, critical technologies, freedom of navigation, and national security.

b. Multilateralism and economic imperatives are being overshadowed by national concerns, with countries increasingly pursuing self-reliance and resilience such as by “on-shoring” or “friend-shoring” their supply chains.

10. The result is a growing bifurcation in the technological and economic systems.

11. Michael Spence, a Nobel Laureate in Economics, recently wrote an article on this destructive decoupling, and warned that it was a “distinctly suboptimal and perilous course”.  He was chairman of the World Bank’s Growth Commission.

a. I was a member of the Growth Commission.  I take his views seriously.

b. Given current trends, destructive decoupling will adversely impact global economic growth, supply chain resilience, as well as food and energy security.  All countries will be poorer because of it.  Southeast Asia and the Global South will be disproportionately impacted.

12. We must address these challenges head on.  We must avert a clash between powerful strategic rivals.  We should urge them to wage peace and not war.  How?

13. First, uphold the rules-based international order, as embodied in the UN Charter and international law.  Disagreements should be settled in accordance with international law, and in the spirit of goodwill, cooperation, and dialogue.  Full weight should be given to the perspectives and interests of all countries, regardless of size.

14. Second, support a free, open, and updated rules-based multilateral trading system, as embodied by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

1. Concurrently, we should strengthen trade and economic relationships through agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the RCEP.   These trade agreements will increase access to global markets, encourage trading based on a set of common rules, and foster greater connectivity.

15. Third, instead of destructive decoupling, work towards constructive coupling.  CPTPP, RCEP, and the China-Singapore large scale projects I mentioned earlier are examples of constructive coupling.  Countries should play a positive-sum game, not a zero-sum game.  In other words, bring about a better and more prosperous world, through a prosper-thy-neighbours attitude, not beggar-thy-neighbours approach.

16. Let me conclude.  Asia has come a long way because of peace and the integration of its economies.  Our region must remain open and inclusive.  We should encourage all parties, including the US and EU, to deepen ties with Asia.  This will promote greater interdependence and give external countries a stake in our region’s peace, stability, and prosperity.

17. I hope this conference will give us more ideas and greater impetus to embark on new initiatives for constructive partnership.

18. Thank you.

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