Edited Transcript of Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan's Interview with CNA Senior Correspondent May Wong at the Special ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers' Meeting, Vientiane, Lao PDR, 20 February 2020

Minister:     Well, I think the ASEAN and ASEAN-China meetings were very timely. The next two to three weeks are actually going to be a crucial period. Over the next two weeks, we will have a clearer idea of the trend within China, whether its unprecedented actions have borne fruit, whether the number of new cases will fall, or whether in fact you're dealing with widespread community transmission and a pandemic. Similarly over the next two weeks, we will also have to watch what happens in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, including within Singapore. If the cases remain confined to clusters, like what we have now, and you don't see further evidence of widespread community transmission, that will be positive. But if on the other hand, you see across Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia widespread community transmission, then you know you're in a completely different phase of what I believe may become a global pandemic. So, we have to watch very carefully what happens. The next couple of weeks are crucial.

The second point that is very evident is that we are in a hyper-connected world. First of all, if we look at the virus, it has already spread to at least 25 countries. This virus does not respect political boundaries, race, language, or religion. All human beings are susceptible to it. The related point on hyper-connectedness is, if you look at the world's busiest air routes, four of the 10 of the world's busiest routes are within ASEAN – Singapore-Jakarta, Singapore-Kuala Lumpur, Singapore-Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur-Jakarta. Four of the 10. If you look in terms of intra-ASEAN tourism flow, every year it's something like 50 million people within ASEAN that have travelled to each other's countries. In fact, the world's busiest land crossing is between Singapore and Malaysia. What all this means is that there will be profound knock-on effects; it's not just the virus, but the impact on tourism, ports, airports, its impact even on the economy – the larger economy – in terms of global supply chains, as well as the impact on commodity prices. So, let's recognise that in a hyper-connected world, an epidemic like this poses major, fundamental, profound challenges. This meeting was important because it allows all of us to meet and share in a very open, candid, and sincere way: the situation, our assessments of the risk, and what needs to be done. And also, where appropriate, to help to get a more coherent response across the region, because that clearly is necessary. When I say a coherent response, it is not just in terms of travel restrictions, but it is also in terms of best practices of what needs to be done, or to even make predictions on what may happen in other countries on the basis of experience in countries that are already dealing with this. So it’s been very useful in that respect.

The third point I would like to make is that it is very important that we all do our best now. Even though you can't predict what the long term outcome is, you must do your best now, because it buys time. And the time that we have enables us to refine our clinical protocols, improve our testing, identify which drugs and which pharmaceuticals will work, stratify risk, make the healthcare better, and hopefully, although it will be difficult, develop a vaccine for it. So, my point is that all the herculean efforts that governments all over the world are doing now are important because it buys time for these improvements to come about. So, it is important that we continue to keep open, candid, sincere platforms of collaboration and cooperation.

Now another dimension, which also needs to be emphasised is this: you've just heard the budget statement by Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, and clearly every country that is affected will also have to consider similar measures. But it's also worth reflecting that this is a time that we in fact need to double down on trade, on investment, on economic integration, and prepare our region for the long-term challenges as well. So, I felt that this was a good and useful meeting. It also enabled China to give us quite a comprehensive and up-to-date update on the situation in China but as I said, we have to watch very carefully what happens in the next two or three weeks.

CNA (May Wong):         Precisely that. You said up to three weeks, that's going to be a test period. What are the indications at this point in time?

Minister:     Watch the number of new cases diagnosed. Of course, we'll also be getting more clinical experiences as you watch the patient outcomes, both mortality as well as the efficacy of the various treatments and there are many clinical trials going on there even now.

CNA:           But with China saying that the number of new cases is going down, is that indicative of the fact that in three weeks, that’s going to be the direction?

Minister:     The question is whether this will be sustained. We hope so, but no one is in a position to give you any guarantees at this point in time. My point is that we have to be prepared for the worst; you hope for the best, prepare for the worst, do your best now. And whatever it is, buy valuable time, so that we can improve outcomes. And at the same time, take coordinated, coherent actions, both domestically as well as regionally, to cope with this common challenge.

CNA:           What are some of the major lapses at this point and do you believe that countries are all on the same page?

Minister:     I am not keen to engage in finger-pointing on lapses. This is not the time to do that. This is the time to be open, transparent, decisive, cooperative, and constructive. Every country, and every political leader in every country, wants the best for his or her own people. And we need to work together. The thing I'm concerned about is not whether countries are testing or not testing. What I am more concerned about is that given the diversity in Southeast Asia and the diversity in the sophistication of healthcare systems, it will be dreadful if we have an epidemic or pandemic that catches alight in countries whose healthcare systems are much less able to cope. That's what I'm more worried about. In the meantime, each of us at the domestic level has to solve our own problems and do our best. And if we do our best and we cooperate with our neighbours, we can reduce the potential impact it has on others whose economies and healthcare systems may actually be less able to tolerate this challenge.

CNA:           But are some countries showing a lax attitude?

Minister:     No, I do not detect that. In my discussions – I've had many – both collective and individual discussions, I do not believe that any country is being lax about it. We may have differences; I mean there are valid differences in approach and priorities, but everyone takes this seriously, no question about it.

CNA:           So at the end of the day, what kind of concrete actions or steps will be taken going forward from all these meetings?

Minister:     Well first, as I said, we're all on the same page. We're all in the same boat and we're exchanging information. Even as we talk now, our health experts are engaged in a video conference, and this will not be the first or last. The fact that there is that flow of information and exchange of best practices will have a salutary effect. It will make a difference.

CNA:           Aside from that, did China bring up the permanent mechanism that they were hoping to establish?

Minister:     Yes, there were some ideas which they brought up, and in fact many of these ideas are still being considered. One way to look at it is this. This is not the first, and this is not the last epidemic or pandemic that the world will confront. And yet because we are a hyper-connected world, in fact, the implications are even more profound than earlier global pandemics. But our responses have to be sustainable. The acute measures that we are taking now need to be sustainable for at least four to six months. In fact, there are some changes which you hope will be permanent. For instance, stepping up standards of public hygiene, personal hygiene, and hand washing. Those are changes in practice that we hope will be permanent. On the other hand, there are also some other emergency measures which will only be there during a period of an acute emergency and not all the time. So we need judgment to assess which permanent measures, permanent mechanisms, what regional institutions and processes you need to set up permanently, and what are the other temporary measures that you need to take in response to an acute emergency. And this will evolve with time. It will have to evolve according to the exigencies as the epidemic evolves. I expect it to change with time.

CNA:           Very quickly Minister: there have been concerns that some countries may be under reporting the cases, or not reporting the cases that they should. What are your thoughts?

Minister:     I don't think that anyone is deliberately under reporting. Let me say why I hold that view. This is a situation that you can't hide. If you haven't noticed it yet – a fire is smouldering under your feet, it will soon become rapid. So I don't think anyone is deliberately or wishfully engaged in denial. But we need to accept that there is great diversity in the sophistication and the ability of our healthcare systems both to detect and treat, and to the extent that we can help each other. It's worth making this point. I'm confident actually of our response in Singapore. Anything that can and should be done will be done. But we should also remember that it is also in our own long-term interest to help our neighbours – to be constructive, to help them level up their standards, and to work together. That's protecting Singaporeans, too.

In a sense if you think about it, and I'll give you a real life example: the difference between SARS and this COVID-19 episode was that this time, China was very quick in isolating the virus, literally within two to three weeks, publishing the genome worldwide, and therefore enabling advanced laboratories all over the world to also develop Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests. Our laboratories in Singapore did that. And then when Wuhan was just overwhelmed with cases, we were able to help them by providing them with some test kits at the acute phase. I think that was helpful, but bear in mind, this would not have been possible without openness, sharing, and collaboration. I think this is the way the world has to work and ASEAN has to do this as well. So my point is that it is in our own interest to be helpful, to be constructive, and to be supportive of our own neighbours, bearing in mind, as I said earlier, that the world's busiest land crossing and some of the world's busiest air links are in Singapore and in our region. So it makes sense for us to play an active role, a helpful role, and a constructive role. And we will.

CNA:           Thank you, Minister.

Minister:     Thank you.

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MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

SINGAPORE

20 FEBRUARY 2020