Edited Transcript of Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan's Wrap-up Interview with Local Media at the 52nd ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting and Related Meetings, Bangkok, Thailand, 2 August 2019

Minister: Well, it has been a very packed three days – 20 meetings, various regional meetings and bilaterals. But I think there’s been a good series of meetings coming at a necessary time, when there are a few clouds on the horizon. Number one, the trade tensions between the US and China. Number two, in the South China Sea, between China and Vietnam. And surprisingly, over the last few days, even the tension between South Korea and Japan. So these have been clouds on the horizon. Nevertheless, I think it was good that we had this meeting at this time. And a couple of key themes came through. Number one, for ASEAN to reaffirm our centrality, our unity, our outlook to these various concepts that are going around on the Indo-Pacific and the rest of it. Basically, to reaffirm that ASEAN remains united, central, and has convening power. And indeed, over the past three days, almost 30 foreign ministers coming here, that is the first thing. Second thing, to work on a couple of newer projects, for instance, on cybersecurity and further enhancing the project that we launched last year on the ASEAN Smart Cities Network, and getting buy-in, both within ASEAN as well as with our partners for these two projects. Third, to continue the discussions, very difficult but essential discussions on the COC (Code of Conduct), in order to try to lower tensions in the South China Sea, so that will continue. Another point, which we have reaffirmed, is to try to complete the RCEP, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. It stands for economic integration, it stands for our belief in free trade, now more than ever, as necessary. So I think that despite the clouds, the fact that we could get a consensus on pursuing these key objectives is a positive start.

CNA (May Wong): Minister, what are some of the new concerns arising from all these, you know, the latest spat, particularly between South Korea and Japan as we saw?

Minister: Well, we had an unusually frank and open discussion during the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) meeting, this is a meeting that involves the ten ASEAN countries, as well as South Korea, Japan and China. I say unusual, because usually, everyone reads off the script. This time there were open, candid exchanges. I took the opportunity to make a more fundamental point, that we need a greater and deeper reservoir of strategic trust within Asia, within Northeast Asia. And certainly, you can argue about disputes, the details of the disputes themselves, whether they are trade related, whether they are hangovers from the Second World War. Those are important, but that is not really a core issue. Without trust, you can’t negotiate, can’t arrive at agreements, you can’t comply and fulfil those agreements. I think the fact that both of the foreign ministers were present and looking into each other's eyes, and there were still smiles, and yet to be able to advance their own national positions, I think this was a very useful platform for them. And within ASEAN itself, again it reaffirms, from time to time, there will be problems, bilateral or regional. But you do need to build up strategic trust, particularly when times are good, so that when we run into problems like this, there is enough trust, enough knowledge of each other's core position in order to find a solution and to do so in a candid, sincere, and constructive way. Well, it is still too early to say that it will be resolved. But I think this was a good meeting.

ST (Tan Hui Yee): But given the sharp exchanges we saw between US and China, particularly Japan and South Korea, how would you characterize the atmosphere in talks this year compared to previous years?

Minister: Well, actually, I was somewhat cheered by the fact that despite the issues, unresolved issues, there was candid, constructive discussions going on. And people were not just hiding behind scripts and pre-conceived positions. But really explaining their positions, expressing their concerns. And then looking for solutions. We are not at the stage where all these difficult issues are resolved. But these conversations are essential. And I am very happy to see that they occurred in an ASEAN context. Again, it goes to the relevance of ASEAN. And the fact that as a group, we stand for multilateralism, economic inter-independence, free trade, candid conversations, and in a sense, be able to resolve things within a regional and a multilateral setting. So I was actually encouraged by the tone in which these conversations occurred over some very long-standing, difficult issues. 

But anyway, the greatest challenge, I think, for us, particularly from a Singapore perspective, is that it is clear that the trade war is not yet over. And it is clear that the tendency, or the temptation to resort to unilateral actions, is always going to be there. So from a Singapore perspective, we have to be careful, we have to be prepared, we have to anticipate some rough weather. And as I said yesterday, the best way to prepare is to start domestically. We have to double down on restructuring our economy. We have to make our companies more competitive. We have to equip Singaporeans with the skills and the capabilities that will be in demand in the new economy. And we have got to accelerate this process. We cannot afford to go slow. We cannot afford to be complacent or to take things for granted. So the fact that we are working very hard at the domestic restructuring level, as well as ensuring that our voice is heard on the international stage. These two things go hand in hand. So in a sense, my key message is “be prepared”. But we are making preparations. And let’s be quietly confident that we have what it takes to make these adjustments in perhaps some very volatile times.

CNA: Are you expecting the situation to further deteriorate? 

Minister: I would say the situation can deteriorate further. And we must not be surprised if that happens. But that is why my point about being prepared domestically, having resilience, and having confidence but not being complacent in our ability to deal with these changes as the situation evolves.

CNA: What kind of additional fallouts are you expecting then? If it exacerbates?

Minister: Trade. If you look at our own growth figures and our export figures, it’s clearly already been affected. Could this get worse? Yes, it could get worse. You would have heard today about the additional tariffs which for instance, America, I think, is intending to impose on China. It is not just bilateral, because it really affects global supply chains, and Singapore, we are part of those global supply chains. So, if you have more friction, more sand, in the global economy, we will be affected. That is one example. Another point is that really, it is not just trade, but even technology itself, and the way the world in the past four or five decades, has been able to create interoperable technology stacks. If that is fractured, it has profound implications.  Again, the common thread there is that you must anticipate a slowdown in growth rates. But again, the answer, the response to that is to speed up our internal reform, our internal restructuring in our own domestic preparation for updating skills and education.  So we are on the right track, but just be prepared.

Lianhe Zaobao (Nam Yunzhou): Minister, a question on the Korean Peninsula, because over the course of these meetings, North Korea has been testing missiles as well. 

Minister: Yes. 

Lianhe Zaobao: And I think this time around, we are also seeing not quite a high level delegation from the DPRK.

Minister: Yes, the Foreign Minister is not here, usually he comes.  I do not know why he is unavailable this time. And clearly we are aware of the missile launches over the last few days. I think this illustrates number one, that the issue is far from resolved. Number two, this is, I believe, DPRK’s way of getting attention, reminding the world that they want to have a say, and you can’t get a resolution without their active participation. But I would also not overreact to it. I think, now, having some familiarity with the leaders in DPRK, they are also very careful calculators. Yes, they want to provoke, or they want to make a point, but I think they are also very careful not to go too far. And similarly, if you look at the response, in the case of the United States, I think you see good restraint being emphasised, being manifested by the United States. So we have to hope that further discussions go on. During our meetings, we were all glad that they had a meeting – President Trump had an apparently good meeting at the DMZ, with Chairman Kim. But meeting at the Leaders’ level still requires a lot of homework, a lot of staff work to be done to resolve the key issues, and we are not there yet. 

Lianhe Zaobao: In the absence of a Minister-level delegation, what are the implications for ASEAN centrality? Does it mean that there is reduced confidence in the ARF mechanism? 

Minister: No, I would not interpret it that way. In fact, the ARF has been one of the few unique multilateral platforms where the DPRK has participated in consistently over the years. I think this time, clearly there are certain circumstances within the DPRK itself which has probably led to its non-participation. I do not want to speculate on that. But the fact that two out of the three meetings between the top leaders have occurred in Southeast Asia – Singapore with the Singapore Summit; the second one in Hanoi – it shows that we are still deemed to be relevant, helpful, constructive, and a trusted partner.  So I think this still reflects well on ASEAN.

CNA: Do you think this is all rhetoric, given the fact that the US and China had meetings here, and they said they had a deep conversation, and you mentioned about deepening trust as well.  And yet, immediately after that, you see Trump actually imposing this 10% tariff on China.  Do you feel as though this just runs counter to whatever that is being said and discussed here? 

Minister: I would not characterise it that way. I am not at all surprised that there will be more twists and turns, ups and downs in these negotiations. So the fact that new tariffs were announced today or that the tariffs will go up, frankly none of that really surprises me. But if you look at it from the diplomatic point of view, what you need more of, are these heart-to-heart conversations. You should never underestimate the importance of President Trump and President Xi meeting, setting the tone for the officials, whilst not being so impatient or being so wishful as to believe that the issues would miraculously go away. I would say that I am not surprised. In fact, things can get worse before they get better. Nevertheless, these meetings are important. For the Secretary of State of the United States to meet PRC State Councillor Wang Yi here in Southeast Asia, and to have, as he described, a calm and professional talk, is important. We certainly hope to do more of that. This is a generational inflection point. Since the end of the Second World War, we have built a world where we have had, particularly in Southeast Asia, considerable peace and prosperity on the basis of economic integration, free trade, global supply chains, and mutual investments. But in a sense, it is the very success of this formula, and this was a formula, a liberal world order underwritten substantially by the United States. But the very success of this system has now led us to a new transition point. We are now transiting into a multipolar world, and we are doing so at a time when the digital revolution is also well underway with all its impact on jobs, social security, people's expectations, and even the way politics is organised and pursued domestically and internationally. This is really an inflection point, which will have profound implications in decades to come. We must not be impatient. As a doctor, my first rule always is ‘do no harm’.  Whatever we do, do not make it worse. Anticipate problems, be prepared, do not make it worse. I think from ASEAN’s perspective, and even from Singapore's perspective, people, even big powers on opposite sides, still trust us. They know when we say something we mean it. We are not anybody’s vassal state or anybody’s proxy. We say what we believe because we believe that this is for the long term good of the region and of the world. To me, I am always intrigued by this precious position of credibility that we have built up over generations. Even now, back home as we talk about generational change in leadership, we need to maintain this reservoir of credibility and trust. This Singapore brand is very, very precious.

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