Transcript of Remarks On The Strategic Situation In The Region By Minister For Foreign Affairs, Prof S Jayakumar In Parliament, 16 May 2002

Mr Chairman, Sir, I thank the Members who have spoken. Let me first respond to Dr Ong Chit Chung on the strategic overview and then the various comments on ASEAN. First, I agree almost completely with what Dr Ong Chit Chung has said in his overview of the strategic situation in our region. I think he has put it as comprehensively as any Foreign Minister could put it. Last year, I noted that Southeast Asia was going through very uncertain times. The situation has not changed materially, but the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 have added considerably to the complexities. He is right when he describes it as a watershed era. In my view, the 9/11 events have affected the geo-political and strategic environment in several ways. I will mention the three major ways.

First, the attacks and the US' response to them have underscored US' pre-eminence and in a sense provided a focus for it. The anti-terrorism campaign will now clearly be the main focus of US' priority for the foreseeable future. Washington, as you know, is quietly determining who its friends and allies are in this new situation. The results of its determination will be a critical influence on East Asia's development and prosperity.

Dr Ong Chit Chung asked about how our relations with the United States will be affected and an assessment of our position on counter-terrorism. I think Members will know that we have taken a very strong stand on terrorism, like all other countries in East Asia. Singapore has stood with the United States in its global fight against terrorism. Why? Because it is the right and correct thing to do. As the arrests of the Jemaah Islamiyah and the uncovering of the network in Singapore have shown, we are clearly not immune. It is in our interest to join in this global coalition. It is a fight that all states in the world will have to stand together to combat this new menace.

The second way in which the global situation has changed is that the events of 9/11 have in fact stabilised US-China relations, a point which Dr Ong also referred to, and that is a very important factor in the East Asian strategic equation. The terrorist attacks and the fight against terrorism have affected big power relationships significantly. As Dr Ong mentioned, the United States need China's support for its global anti-terrorism effort. Although China may not agree fully with every aspect of US policies, it also wants stable relations with the US, and when US-China relations are stable, I think it has a calming effect on the region across the board. But when US-China relations are disturbed, as the collision of the plane incident last year showed, the entire region is considerably unsettled.
I think we can expect geopolitical positioning to continue in many different forms. There may be occasional differences. But this is inevitable in the relationship between big powers. For now, the US-China-Japan strategic triangular relationship, which underpins East Asian growth and prosperity, can be described as stable. We are fortunate in Singapore to have very good relations with China and Japan as well as with the US. Singapore and other countries in the region will benefit from the strategic stability of US-China-Japan relations.

Dr Ong asked specifically about our relationship with the United States. I would describe our relationship as excellent. It is multi-faceted and a strong relationship that predates 9/11. Prime Minister Goh made a very successful visit to Washington last June and more recently Senior Minister did so. Prime Minister and Senior Minister met President Bush and other United States leaders and they had very fruitful exchange of views on both regional and bilateral matters. I think many other Ministers have also made visits to the United States or are planning to do so. This close relationship is in our interest as several of my colleagues have mentioned both on this Ministry and other cuts. Our negotiations on FTA with the United States would benefit not just our two countries but also the entire region. When completed, I think the FTA will strengthen the bilateral relationship.

The third way in which 9/11 has affected the strategic landscape is that, as I mentioned last year, the political and economic changes that have catalysed across the region by the crisis of 1997 and 1998 are still being played out. Many countries are adjusting to those events. Matters are compounded by the events of 9/11. A key factor will be how countries deal with political Islam and religious extremism, again, a point that Dr Ong mentioned. There are more than 230 million Muslims in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian Islam has traditionally been syncratic and tolerant. Mainstream Muslims in Southeast Asia have been moderate in their beliefs. We all know that most Muslims in our region want nothing to do with terrorism or extremism. But it is a fact that Southeast Asian Islam is changing under pressure of external influences. As Dr Ong said, there are extremists with political agendas and some of the most dangerous terrorist organisations try to invoke Islam as their motivating ideology. Muslim anger in some quarters against the US is another fact of life.
Therefore, America's pre-eminence means that there is no real alternative for any Southeast Asian government than to try to forge good relations with the US. Good relations with the US are not possible unless governments cooperate in the anti-terrorism campaign. But many Southeast Asian governments will also have to find ways of assuaging the anxieties of their Muslim ground which may be uneasy or unhappy about US policies while at the same time taking firm action to neutralise extremist Islamic elements in their societies. But how governments deal with this matter is a political conundrum. How they deal with this will have a profound influence on Southeast Asia now.

Dr Ong Chit Chung asked how Singapore is going to position itself in these fast-changing developments. As a small state, we do not have that many options. But Singapore, as we all know, cannot exist without effective external links to all parts of the world. At the same time, we must realise that Singapore's future is in inextricably linked to Southeast Asia. That is why I have always stressed in this House that we have to have a multi-track approach to our engagement with the rest of the world. We are firmly committed and must remain committed to ASEAN and to the region. And, as I will show when answering questions on ASEAN, we have in fact played our part in trying to assist ASEAN to deal with some of the enormous challenges that it faces. At the same time, we have to engage with regions beyond Southeast Asia, with the major powers - with Europe, with the US, and with Northeast Asia. In doing so, not only can we advance our own interests but, I believe, it also helps focus these external players on the importance of Southeast Asia. Of course, specific policies will have to be adapted to changing circumstances. I may add that the total effect of the 9/11 events is that it has underscored the unpredictability of international development, and it has underscored the need for small countries like Singapore to be agile and nimble, and to adjust both its economic and strategic and other facets of its policies to a rapidly-changing external environment.

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