PM: ASEAN leaders recognise there are changes taking place and the ASEAN Summit has risen to the occasion. The trends are "geo-economic", in other words, they are similar to geo-political changes in the world.
There are basically three trends the leaders are concerned with. One, China's imminent entry to the WTO; ASEAN leaders welcome this as a positive development but nevertheless they recognise the challenges China's entry to WTO would pose to ASEAN by way of competition in the export markets and competition in investments against the 1 billion (pp) market that is China. A second trend is the IT revolution which is going to have a much bigger impact than the industrial revolution which took about 200 years for the full impact of the revolution to be seen. The IT revolution would take place at a much faster rate. Third, the proliferation of regional FTAs. The FTAs are very important for ASEAN members. Within WTO it is entirely consistent for regional groupings to establish regional trading arrangements.
These three trends have an impact on ASEAN. So ASEAN leaders have decided to advance the end date of ASEAN FTA from 2015 to 2010. Even bolder is the preparedness of the new countries, newer economies, lesser developed economies in ASEAN to change the end date to 2015. Of course there are some reservations on sensitive items. But by and large, even Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar are prepared to move their end date from 2020 to 2015 with some exceptions. So I regard this as a forward-looking ASEAN Summit that grapples with fundamental issues and comes up with some bold decisions.
On the political side, two decisions were to me important. One is the support of the ASEAN leaders for the territorial integrity of Indonesia. We supported peaceful moves taken by President Abdurrahman Wahid to handle the Aceh situation. And ASEAN leaders wanted to show that we recognise the sovereignty of the whole of Indonesia which would include the province of Aceh.
The second was the idea of a troika, comprising current Chairman of ASEAN plus if possible, the previous Chair and the future Chair. But it's flexible - the Chairman can decide on the right persons to assist the Chairman in handling a crisis in ASEAN. So that is a very useful development because sometimes a crisis happens in ASEAN and you need a mechanism to deal with the crisis. So this trioka is a good development. In other words, I thought this was a good meeting. There were two very important limbs to deal with future challenges for ASEAN.
Q: (Inaudible)
A: The principle of non-interference is still there. So the trioka would have to handle future crisis in a very delicate way. If there are bilateral disputes for example which may develop into something serious for ASEAN, at least there is a trioka that may decide to move in and defuse the situation.
Q: (Inaudible)
A: China, should never be regarded as an enemy by anyone. China has every legitimate right to join the WTO and ASEAN leaders look upon China as a challenge and an opportunity, with a positive attitude which we had. It is a challenge because we now have to compete with China. But if China succeeds, China is going to open up with hugh opportunities for the ASEAN countries to export to China. It is right at our doorstep.
Q: They are much stronger than we are.
A: Exactly, that's why it is a chellenge. So ASEAN, if we think through carefully, ASEAN can rise up to this challenge of a big competitor. ASEAN has 500 million people. If AFTA can tie up with the Australian and New Zealand CER, then we would have slightly over 500 million people, but in terms of GDP combined AFTA and CER economies, we would be the size of Chinese economy. So think along that line we are not that small.
Q: Did you tie it up on the East Asia Monetary Fund?
A: We did not discuss that. I think the officials discussed that, but the leaders did not discuss that. It is an idea which we can consider. If somebody is prepared to put up that money, then the question of moral hazard can be taken care of. It is another facility for ASEAN countries.
Q: Is it a East Asian corporation?
A: I think that is something which is very positive, which we all are looking at and as the leaders recognise you can all come talking about North East Asia and South East Asia, what happens in South East Asia will have an impact on North East Asia and what happened in Korea affected tourism in South East Asia, so now we are thinking in terms of evolving East Asian community with a small "c", that means we encourage more people-to-people relations and more economic interactions between North East and South East.
Q: Is there going to be a forum?
A: I think over time there will be a forum to discuss this idea. At the moment, there is an East Asian regional group that is doing some studies. So let us look at the recommendations first before we decide on some forum.
Q: Your bilateral with Gus Dur, what can you tell us, Sir?
A: I can't tell you too much. First I told him I wanted to stay in touch with him, I mean I met him for the first time in Singapore so I should maintain my contact with him. Secondly I gave some dates in which I propose to visit Jakarta, so of course he has got to go back and sort out whether the dates I have given would be convenient to him. Then I told him I have already sent the Chairman of Singapore's Economic Development Board to Jakarta. In fact he and the team are there today and I would await his recommendations on what Singapore can do when I go there.
Q: How significant is it that there was a paragraph concluded in the final (Chairman) statement on Aceh when all the ASEAN countries have said all along that Aceh was an internal Indonesian issue but now it seems to become an ASEAN problem?
A: It is a significant statement. Indonesia discussed on the Aceh issue and how Indonesia intended to handle the Aceh issue. Of course Indonesia also wanted ASEAN support on the way they handle the Aceh issue. So ASEAN leaders supported. That's why you have got a paragraph there.
Q: Is Indonesia going to become a big force within ASEAN?
A Indonesia would always be a big force in ASEAN, I think for the good. We are all very realistic, 200 million people must be a big force in ASEAN.
Q: Economically, you are far ahead of Indonesia.
A: Economically, Indonesia at the moment has been weakened by the crisis but once they have the political stability, security situation is right, Indonesia will emerge and we do hope over time Indonesia will become a powerful economy.
Q: What can you offer to Indonesia?
A: We can function as a facilitator. I mean Singapore, as you know, is a small country. We can't do wonders but we can facilitate investments into Indonesia. The other term which we can use besides facilitator is catalyst, that means you put catalyst to some chemicals to cause some changes. So basically we would ourselves focus on the foundation that we have built up in Batam, Bintan and Karamun. The three islands are next door to Singapore, we have investments over there, we can very quickly try and bring in more investments to these three islands. But of course we should look beyond these three islands but that would take a little time. One last question.
Q: The money that the Indonesians brought overseas before, is it possible to attract them back?
A: I think it depends on Indonesia. First of all, I would not know how much money would be floating in the world. If you ask Indonesian Chinese businessmen, they would say they have no money, so who would know whether they have got money. But if you have the right economic conditions, I think they will be back. So the key lies with Indonesia. Thank you.
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